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Atletico Madrid logo
Copa del Rey | Round of 16
Jan 18, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Real Madrid logo
Atletico
4 - 2
Real Madrid
Lino (39'), Morata (57'), Griezmann (100'), Riquelme (119')
Morata (58'), Hermoso (68'), De Paul (78'), Koke (80'), Simeone (83'), Griezmann (101'), Witsel (113')
FT
(aet)
Oblak (45+1' og.), Joselu (82')
Junior (45'), Camavinga (56'), Diaz (68'), Tchouameni (85'), Bellingham (87'), Carvajal (89')
The Match
Team News
Sports Mole rounds up all of the latest injury and suspension news ahead of Thursday's Copa del Rey clash between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa del Rey clash between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Real Madrid could line up for Thursday's Copa del Rey last-16 clash with Atletico Madrid.
Injuries & Suspensions
Sports Mole rounds up Real Madrid's injury and suspension news ahead of their Copa del Rey last-16 clash with Atletico Madrid on Thursday.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Real Madrid 5-3 Atletico
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in Supercopa de Espana

Real Madrid

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Real Madrid 4-1 Barcelona
Sunday, January 14 at 7pm in Supercopa de Espana

We say: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid

 While Atletico's overall form recently is nothing to write home about, Los Rojiblancos are on a remarkable 25-game unbeaten run at the Metropolitano Stadium - winning 11 of their last 12 at a ground where they have not lost in over a year. With Simeone's side also enjoying a longer recuperation period from their Middle Eastern endeavours, a jet-lagged Real will have their work cut out this time around and could very well see their Copa del Rey defence crash and burn against their vengeful rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawReal Madrid
36.69% (0.285 0.28) 25.12% (0.236 0.24) 38.19% (-0.52 -0.52)
Both teams to score 57.32% (-0.83000000000001 -0.83)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.78% (-1.08 -1.08)46.21% (1.08 1.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.49% (-1.028 -1.03)68.51% (1.028 1.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.31% (-0.34 -0.34)24.69% (0.341 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.77% (-0.479 -0.48)59.23% (0.48 0.48)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.12% (-0.754 -0.75)23.88% (0.754 0.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.91% (-1.093 -1.09)58.08% (1.093 1.09)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 36.69%
    Real Madrid 38.19%
    Draw 25.12%
Atletico MadridDrawReal Madrid
2-1 @ 8.26% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 8.25% (0.293 0.29)
2-0 @ 5.77% (0.15 0.15)
3-1 @ 3.85% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.76% (-0.078 -0.08)
3-0 @ 2.69% (0.044 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.35% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-2 @ 0.96% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-0 @ 0.94% (0.0059999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 36.69%
1-1 @ 11.81% (0.17 0.17)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.108 -0.11)
0-0 @ 5.9% (0.265 0.27)
3-3 @ 1.32% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.12%
1-2 @ 8.46% (-0.069999999999999 -0.07)
0-1 @ 8.44% (0.199 0.2)
0-2 @ 6.05% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.04% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-3 @ 2.89% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.82% (-0.116 -0.12)
1-4 @ 1.45% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-4 @ 1.03% (-0.045 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.065 -0.07)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 38.19%

How you voted: Atletico vs Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid
30.2%
Real Madrid
69.8%
179
Head to Head
Jan 10, 2024 7pm
Semi-Finals
Real Madrid
5-3
Atletico
Rudiger (20'), Mendy (29'), Carvajal (85'), Joselu (116'), Diaz (120+2')
Diaz (120+3')
Hermoso (6'), Griezmann (37'), Rudiger (78' og.)
> Match Report
Sep 24, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 6
Atletico
3-1
Real Madrid
Morata (4', 46'), Griezmann (18')
Gimenez (45+1')
Kroos (35')
Modric (45'), Mendy (67'), Bellingham (90+5')
> Match Report
Feb 25, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 23
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico
Alvaro (85')
Gimenez (78')
> Match Report
Jan 26, 2023 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Real Madrid
3-1
Atletico
Rodrygo (79'), Benzema (103'), Junior (120+1')
Morata (19')
> Match Report
Sep 18, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 6
Atletico
1-2
Real Madrid
Hermoso (83')
Rodrygo (18'), Valverde (36')
> Preview
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