Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.5%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 10.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 3-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
73.5% ( -0.04) | 16.03% ( -0) | 10.46% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 51.58% ( 0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.21% ( 0.15) | 35.79% ( -0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.13% ( 0.17) | 57.86% ( -0.17) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.62% ( 0.03) | 8.38% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.85% ( 0.07) | 29.15% ( -0.07) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.3% ( 0.18) | 43.7% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.12% ( 0.15) | 79.88% ( -0.15) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
2-0 @ 11.25% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0) 3-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.86% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.18% ( 0) 5-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.5% | 1-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.03) Other @ 1% Total : 16.03% | 1-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.25% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 2% Total : 10.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 14 | 32 | 52 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 58 | 19 | 39 | 52 |
3 | Porto | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 45 |
4 | Braga | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 40 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 40 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 35 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
8 | SC FarenseFarense | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 26 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 24 |
10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 22 |
12 | Estrela Amadora | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 21 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 21 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 21 |
16 | Casa Pia | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 20 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 14 |
18 | Vizela | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 13 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |