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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw has a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City has a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it is 1-0 (6.07%).
Result | ||
Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
19.84% ( 0.18) | 23% ( -0.07) | 57.16% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 51.48% ( 0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.08% ( 0.55) | 47.93% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.9% ( 0.51) | 70.1% ( -0.5) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.67% ( 0.52) | 38.33% ( -0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.91% ( 0.49) | 75.09% ( -0.49) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.48% ( 0.16) | 16.53% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.73% ( 0.29) | 46.27% ( -0.28) |
Score Analysis |
Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.5% Total : 19.84% | 1-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.99% | 0-1 @ 11.4% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 10.26% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 6.16% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.91% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 2.77% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.66% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1% ( 0) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.09% Total : 57.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Portsmouth | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 66 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 60 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 59 |
4 | Barnsley | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 55 | 34 | 21 | 56 |
5 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 56 |
6 | Stevenage | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 53 |
7 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 52 |
8 | Blackpool | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 |
9 | Leyton Orient | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 41 |
11 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 41 |
12 | Bristol Rovers | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 40 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 39 |
14 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 44 | 38 | 6 | 37 |
15 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 37 |
16 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 35 |
17 | Burton Albion | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 35 |
18 | Reading | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 34 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 34 |
20 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 31 |
21 | Port Vale | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 31 |
22 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 26 |
23 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 52 | -21 | 25 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 20 |
> League One Full Table |