Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 88.59%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 3.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.6%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (1.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.