Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.02%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 20.33% and a draw had a probability of 18.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (5.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.