Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.