Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 49.8%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.