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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 47.12%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Leicester City |
28.95% ( -1.38) | 23.93% ( -0.32) | 47.12% ( 1.7) |
Both teams to score 58.65% ( 0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.74% ( 0.72) | 43.26% ( -0.72) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.34% ( 0.7) | 65.66% ( -0.7) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.99% ( -0.56) | 28.01% ( 0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.34% ( -0.73) | 63.66% ( 0.72) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.47% ( 0.98) | 18.53% ( -0.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.23% ( 1.64) | 49.76% ( -1.64) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Leicester City |
2-1 @ 7.09% ( -0.23) 1-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.32) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.28) 3-1 @ 3.01% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.78% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.78% Total : 28.95% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.92% | 1-2 @ 9.39% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 8.75% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.38% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 5.27% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 4.15% ( 0.25) 2-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.17) 0-4 @ 1.75% ( 0.16) 2-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.45% Total : 47.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leicester CityLeicester | 31 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 66 | 24 | 42 | 75 |
2 | Southampton | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 60 | 35 | 25 | 64 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 55 | 26 | 29 | 63 |
4 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 60 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 49 |
6 | Coventry CityCoventry | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 47 |
7 | Sunderland | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 47 |
8 | Hull City | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 45 |
9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 45 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
11 | Watford | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 41 |
12 | Middlesbrough | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 41 |
13 | Bristol City | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 41 |
14 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 40 |
15 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 36 |
16 | Swansea CitySwansea | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 36 |
17 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 30 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 36 |
18 | Millwall | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 33 |
19 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 32 |
21 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 31 |
22 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 29 |
23 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 31 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 26 |
24 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 30 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 19 |
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