Ordinarily, we would make Boavista favourites to win this match, but the visitors are missing some key players due to injury, suspension, and international call-ups. They will also arrive in Vizela in desperately poor form.
However, the hosts have also struggled to win in recent weeks, and they may settle for sharing the spoils. This would not be enough to move them out of the automatic relegation spots, but it may be viewed as another step in the right direction.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest Vizela win was 1-0 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
0.19) 
-0.01) 
