Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.85%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 14.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Vizela win it was 1-0 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Vizela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
14.19% ( 0.13) | 18.96% ( 0.03) | 66.85% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 52.97% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.02% ( 0.18) | 39.98% ( -0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.66% ( 0.19) | 62.35% ( -0.18) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.56% ( 0.3) | 40.44% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.95% ( 0.27) | 77.05% ( -0.26) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.93% ( 0.02) | 11.07% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.57% ( 0.02) | 35.44% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Vizela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 4.05% 2-1 @ 4.04% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.7% Total : 14.19% | 1-1 @ 8.92% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.48% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.96% | 0-2 @ 10.84% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 7.96% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 7.2% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 4.38% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 3.96% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.74% ( 0) Other @ 4.12% Total : 66.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 14 | 32 | 52 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 58 | 19 | 39 | 52 |
3 | Porto | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 45 |
4 | Braga | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 40 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 40 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 35 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
8 | SC FarenseFarense | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 26 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 24 |
10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 22 |
12 | Estrela Amadora | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 21 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 21 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 21 |
16 | Casa Pia | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 20 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 14 |
18 | Vizela | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 13 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |